Still a three-way race for Democratic Party nominee for president, polls show

Updated: Mar 6, 2020

Senator Bernie Sanders, the current frontrunner in the race to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination, has an uncertain lead, according to polling in key battleground states.

South Carolina is the final state to vote before the Super Tuesday states go to the polls on March 3rd, and polling shows that former Vice President Joe Biden still holds a significant polling lead over the field.

According to the latest polling data from RealClearPolitics, Biden holds an average of a 12 point lead in the polls over Sanders in South Carolina, coming in at over 34 points versus Sanders' 22 points. The South Carolina primary will be held on Saturday.

While Sanders currently holds the momentum going into South Carolina, if Biden is able to take a big win, it may change outcomes on Super Tuesday, particularly in states where Biden has polled well.

In key Super Tuesday states Texas and North Carolina Sanders has a very slim lead in the RCP polling average, which shows him ahead by less than two points over Biden.

Biden and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg both have significant support in the south, with Bloomberg leading in the pack in Oklahoma and Arkansas, according to polling.

Sanders has other challenges to overcome in states such as Massachusetts and Minnesota. Massachusetts is Elizabeth Warren's home state and Sanders holds a slim lead over her in the polling. In Minnesota, he's trailing Amy Klobuchar by 6 points.

A weak showing by Sanders in South Carolina could result in a three-way race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. With Biden and Bloomberg not polling far off in several states and Bloomberg having spent nearly $500 million on advertising, the race for the nomination could result in a brokered convention, a situation where no nominee has won a majority of the delegates.

Project 538 has the latest odds of a brokered convention at 51%, higher than Sanders' odds to win the nomination outright at 32%.

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